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By Paul Goldfinger, MD, Editor@Blogfinger.net
Research regarding the pandemic is not just about vaccines. The virus is a moving target for researchers, and other goals include refining testing procedures which is an area that will become increasingly important and rigorous thanks to new technologies.
The same applies to epidemiologic trials looking at issues such as how to deal with close quarters situations as on campus or on an aircraft carrier with a crew of 1,700. And if they are in a battle situation, then what to do?
And there are new drugs being developed to help treat those who test “positive”and become sick. Many test positive and feel normal, and we need more information about that group and about the effectiveness of “herd immunity.”
Even masking is not so straight forward, and we all witness the confusion when we are out and about. By in large, most people are cooperating, and masking is somewhat effective.
But now there is great interest in “the holidays.” It’s worrisome to try and figure out what to do. The best approach is to reduce risk as much as possible, and the information below can help, but there are so many variables for you to consider as you ponder the uncertainties.
Here is a link from the AMA:
And here is some information that I picked up from reliable sites:
From the Washington Post:
“Respiratory viruses thrive in dry, warm indoor conditions in which people crowd together. The statistical peak of flu season typically comes close on the heels of Christmas and New Year’s. Colder weather is already driving people indoors, and the number of positive tests has been rising across the country.”
“The coronavirus pandemic numbers have been going the wrong direction for more than a month, topping 80,000 newly confirmed infections daily across the country, with hospitalizations rising in more than three dozen states and deaths creeping upward. Now, the United States is barreling toward another inflection point: a holiday season dictated by the calendar and demanded by tradition.”
“The governments top doctors have said that they believe the recent national spike in infections has largely been driven by household transmission. Superspreader events have gotten a lot of attention, but it’s the prosaic meals with family and friends that are driving up caseloads.
“The scientists are not telling people to cancel their holiday plans, necessarily. But they are urging people to think of alternative ways to celebrate. They do not say it explicitly, yet they are encouraging a kind of rationing of togetherness.”
CDC:.
www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/holidays.html
Blogfinger:
The safest bet is to not tempt fate. Just eat turkey with immediate family. And keep your college kids away unless they have been strictly quarantined for 2-3 weeks (? impossible) before coming home and then tested before leaving and after arrival. Don’t be mislead if they “feel fine.” And quarantined visitors from afar are just as risky. And testing as described may turn out to be insufficient as new testing procedures are on the horizon, and more rigorous testing becomes required.
In a recent trial of Marine recruits, 1,800 were self quarantined for two weeks at home before arriving at a training facility at the empty Citadel campus and then strictly quarantined again for two weeks after arrival. They wore masks all day except for sleep, and the prevention procedures were supervised by Marine officers, and still some got infected, and one died.
Of those who got infected, most had no symptoms and were communicable until they were identified. So the Marines had pretty good results with their very strict prevention program, but it was not perfect, and how many of you can duplicate such strict measures or be wiling to take any chance at all ?
Me? Three of us live at home, and our other son and daughter-in -law, who are strict, will come from nearby and bring our 2 year old grandson. We 6 will eat turkey together.
And remember, taking temperatures is not foolproof either, and some prevention programs have stopped doing temps.