To: Neptune Township Committee: (copy shared with Blogfinger.net and the OGHOA)
From: Phillip Orton, Ph.D.
2/25/24
In addition to being an Ocean Grove homeowner, I am a professor at Stevens Institute of Technology and an engineer and scientist with expertise in flooding from storm surge and rainfall.
Given my research and forecasting of both rainfall and ocean flooding, I have plenty of expertise to provide on the impact of such a development. I am writing to pass along some quick notes and back-of-the envelope calculations, and I welcome you to further draw on my expertise where useful in your deliberations on the North End development decisions.
Unfortunately, in the Ocean Grove Homeowners meeting (2/24/24,) I heard what I believe were misconceptions or inaccurate conclusions about flooding, so, I am writing to pass along some quick perspectives, informed by my own scientific research and engineering knowledge.
First, the proposed development is likely to have a negligible effect on flooding for Ocean Grove from rainfall or storm surge. As demonstrated in the past year, Asbury gets flooded by Wesley Lake, not Ocean Grove.
To my knowledge, there was no flooding from Wesley Lake into Ocean Grove buildings in the past year. Please let me know if that is incorrect, but most or all of the properties on the north side of Ocean Grove are elevated on higher ground than the lake’s historical rainfall-driven peak water levels.
Regarding storm surge flooding, I also have expertise in “induced flooding” that occurs when one location is changed or protected from flooding. The concern has been voiced that the proposed North End development would worsen flooding at nearby locations during extreme coastal flood events. I do not understand why that would be a significant issue in this case, but if given an explanation with specific details I could give some scientific perspective on this concern. Again, I’d be happy to learn more and discuss the topic.
Second, the development of the North End site appears unlikely to have a significant effect on Wesley Lake water levels in extreme rain events. The site is roughly 1/300 of the size of the Wesley watershed, so of minimal importance to Wesley’s water levels. Nevertheless, reductions in pervious surfaces have a cumulative impact and any runoff regulations must be followed. However, I am not aware of any regulatory problems with the development and its runoff. I am not an expert on such regulations, in any case – my expertise is in the physics of flooding.
Thank you for your attention.
Dr. Philip Orton
Research Associate Professor
Stevens Institute of Technology
Editor Blogfinger.net: Here is a video regarding Wesley Lake flooding on Sept 29, 2023 and posted on Blogfinger:
SHE AND HIM:
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