Florida farmers market. Vendors have cancelled, and shoppers are few. Most are buying produce and practicing social distancing. Paul Goldfinger photo. ©. March 20, 2020. Click to enlarge.
Today’s NY Times describes a young lawyer who got a “cold” and then quickly evolved into being in an ICU, in isolation, and on a ventilator. His COVID test was positive. His family has no clear idea as to how he acquired the infection. His wife and child are OK.
I have seen only one person wearing a mask here. (Ft. Myers, Florida southwest). Is this person trying to avoid infection, or is she ill and doesn’t want to spread the virus?
CDC says, “If you are NOT sick: You do not need to wear a facemask unless you are caring for someone who is sick (and they are not able to wear a facemask). Facemasks may be in short supply and they should be saved for caregivers.”
If the woman above is sick, she should not be out and about.
And when should individuals be tested? This issue has not been settled even as tests become more available. And opinions vary around the world. In the case of the ICU lawyer, his wife and child have not been tested.
Scientists would like to test everybody in order to follow the progress of the epidemic, but that is not possible. It’s not even possible now to test everyone with mild viral type symptoms or everyone who is vulnerable. Very ill patients do get tested.
The CDC provides the information below, and even they say that there is “more to learn about the virus transmission.”
We have been wondering about the effectiveness of the NPI’s (non-pharmacologic interventions) which refers to all the social spacing, self isolation, public policies of closing stores, beaches, schools, etc. which we are currently implementing.
Can we hope that this will be totally effective; well it can’t. We know that from the 1918-19 horrible influenza pandemic. And epidemiologists who are now looking at the COVID-19 pandemic say that many will still get infected despite our best efforts with NPI’s.
That is why the pharmaceutical industry is working frantically with the government to come up with some anti-viral drugs that might slow this all down. A vaccine won’t be ready for a long while.
We have been trying to keep up with all the information, but that would be a full time job, and a depressing and anxiety provoking one at that.
So we will try to highlight bits and pieces and concepts on a daily basis with no pretense that we are doing a comprehensive job.
Instead you might think of us as a sort of beacon shining a small light here and there in the middle of a stormy sea.
Blogfinger update: March 20, 2020. Paul Goldfinger, MD
Source CDC:
“COVID-19 is an emerging disease and there is more to learn about its transmission, severity, and how it will take shape in the United State. Everyone can do their part to help plan, prepare, and respond to this emerging public health threat.
- People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest).
- Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new corona virus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.
“It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.
“How easily a virus spreads from person-to-person can vary. Some viruses are highly contagious (spread easily), like measles, while other viruses do not spread as easily. Another factor is whether the spread is sustained, spreading continually without stopping.
“The virus that causes COVID-19 seems to be spreading easily and sustainably in the community (“community spread”) in some affected geographic areas.
“Community spread means people have been infected with the virus in an area, including some who are not sure how or where they became infected.
“Different parts of the country are seeing different levels of COVID-19 activity. The United States nationally is currently in the initiation phases, but states where community spread is occurring are in the acceleration phase. The duration and severity of each phase can vary depending on the characteristics of the virus and the public health response.
- CDC and state and local public health laboratories are testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.
- More and more states are reporting cases of COVID-19 to CDC.
- U.S. COVID-19 cases include:
- Imported cases in travelers
- Cases among close contacts of a known case
- Community-acquired cases where the source of the infection is unknown.
- Three U.S. states are experiencing sustained community spread.
It has been amazing and somewhat terrifying to see government tactics needing to be changed every few days, due to the rapid rise in cases. Now NY and NJ seem to have given up on testing anyone who has been in contact (and thus all backtracing) and are mainly just testing sick people for confirmation. So we have little idea how many actually have it.
I think the way forward they are hopefully targeting is to have essential services personnel be tested regularly and everyone else sheltering. Then we could flatten the curve within weeks and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed.
What do you think of the state’s health commissioner saying “I’m definitely going to get it. We all are.” Seems very negative and counterproductive.
Nothing is a certainty, so why be so confidently negative?
When I was a child, there was a story about chicken little who cried ” the sky is falling”. The MSM has become the chicken little of our age, always crying doom. That is what is going on now with this new flu strain.
This country has been living for years with between 30,000 to 50,000 people a year dying of the flu without having to call it a pandemic.
So far, about 200 of the expected 30 to 50,000 deaths from the flu have died with this new strain. The sky is not falling, it is just what happens during flu season. As the doctor has said, most Americans will recover no matter what strain of the flu you get.
The MSM most stop its fear mongering, it is destroying this country.
From an Israeli epidemiologist.
All math. models I have seen predict that by the end of this outbreak, which could be in several months or could be in a year or two, about 60-70 percent of the population will be infected at some point. Not all people who are infected become sick. Some don’t even notice that they have it, or have very minor symptoms.