This regional flood forecast is from the Stevens Institute of Technology, courtesy of Phil Orton, Ph.D. of Ocean Grove. Phil is Research Assistant Professor at the Institute in Hoboken:
A large full‐moon tide will coincide with strong winds, snowfall, and a moderate 2‐5 foot storm surge this weekend, leading to the possibility of coastal flooding across our region.
The areas at most risk for major flooding are Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey, but minor‐to‐moderateflooding is likely from Hatteras to Northern New Jersey. At most, only minor coastal flooding of low lying areas is expected for the New York / New Jersey metropolitan area with the forecasts seen so far. Any coastal flooding will likely occur Saturday or the first half of Sunday.
Although there is still moderate uncertainty, forecasted flood levels are roughly similar or slightly worse than those which occurred during the nor’easter that caused flooding in the same areas early last October, at the time that Hurricane Joaquin was threatening to come towards the East Coast.
In terms of waves, NOAA is forecasting maximum 18‐foot waves offshore, which are similar to the October storm. However the shorter duration of this storm will likely mean moderate erosion will occur, less than in October. Beaches that are in good condition should protect the communities behind them; however beaches left vulnerable during the October storm will be weakened even further.
Due to the high tides, any increase in the storm surge or waves could lead to even more flooding or erosion, so we are monitoring our flood forecasts and those of other organizations, which are updated four times per day (www.stevens.edu/SFAS) at Stevens.
Be careful out there. Here are the BEE GEES “Stayin’ Alive”